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Estimated Radiation Risks Potentially Associated with Full-Body CT Screening¹

¹ From the Center for Radiological Research, Columbia University, 630 W 168th St, New York, NY 10032. Received July 11, 2003; revision requested September 30; final revision received January 22, 2004; accepted February 23. Supported by U.S. Department of Energy Low-Dose Radiation Research Program grants DE-FG-02–01ER6326 and DE-FG-02–98ER62686 and by National Institutes of Health grants EB002033 and CA 49062. Address correspondence to D.J.B. (e-mail: djb3@columbia.edu).

PURPOSE: To estimate the radiation-related cancer mortality risks associated with single or repeated full-body computed tomographic (CT) examinations by using standard radiation risk estimation methods.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: The estimated dose to the lung or stomach from a single full-body CT examination is 14–21 mGy, which corresponds to a dose region for which there is direct evidence of increased cancer mortality in atomic bomb survivors. Total doses for repeated examinations are correspondingly higher. The authors used estimated cancer risks in a U.S. population derived from atomic bomb–associated cancer mortality data, together with calculated organ doses from a full-body CT examination, to estimate the radiation risks associated with single and multiple full-body CT examinations.

RESULTS: A single full-body CT examination in a 45-year-old adult would result in an estimated lifetime attributable cancer mortality risk of around 0.08%, with the 95% credibility limits being a factor of 3.2 in either direction. A 45-year-old adult who plans to undergo annual full-body CT examinations up to age 75 (30 examinations) would accrue an overall estimated lifetime attributable risk of cancer mortality of about 1.9%, with the 95% credibility limits being a factor of 2 in either direction.

CONCLUSION: The authors provide estimates of lifetime cancer mortality risks from both single and annual full-body CT examinations. These risk estimates are needed to assess the utility of full-body CT examinations from both an individual and a public health perspective.

© RSNA, 2004

Index terms: Cancer screening • Computed tomography (CT), radiation exposure, 60.47, 72.47 • Radiations, injurious effects, 60.47, 72.47

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